Independent research · Thematic equity · Macro

Choose your ground.

Fabius never fought on Hannibal's terms. He held the high ground and waited. We map the market's terrain the same way, then strike where the odds favor us.

The Fabian method

Fig. II
I

Explorare

Map a theme's first-, second- and third-order effects before the market prices them in.

II

Cunctari

Wait for price and narrative to break away from the fundamentals. Being early is free. Being impatient is costly.

III

Ferire

Name the trade: the securities, the direction, and what would prove the thesis wrong.

IV

Recensere

Mark every idea in public, open and closed. The ledger keeps us honest.

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