The Fabian method
Fig. III
Explorare
Map a theme's first-, second- and third-order effects before the market prices them in.
II
Cunctari
Wait for price and narrative to break away from the fundamentals. Being early is free. Being impatient is costly.
III
Ferire
Name the trade: the securities, the direction, and what would prove the thesis wrong.
IV
Recensere
Mark every idea in public, open and closed. The ledger keeps us honest.
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