Why Fabius
In 217 BC, Rome was losing to Hannibal. Quintus Fabius Maximus took command and did the unpopular thing: he wouldn’t fight on Hannibal’s terms. He held the high ground, cut off supplies and waited for the odds to turn. Rome called him Cunctator, “the Delayer,” and meant it as an insult. Then the generals who abandoned his strategy marched into the disaster at Cannae.
Markets punish the same impatience. Most losses don’t come from being wrong about a theme. They come from acting on the right theme at the wrong price, at the wrong time.
What we publish
- Primers. Deep dives on a theme, traced to its first-, second- and third-order effects.
- Macro notes. Shorter pieces on the regime, rates, liquidity and policy.
- Field notes. What we learned on the ground, and where it contradicts consensus.
- Ideas. Specific trades: the securities, the direction, and what would prove us wrong.
How we work
- Explorare. Scout the terrain before the market does.
- Cunctari. Wait for the asymmetry.
- Ferire. Strike, and name the trade.
- Recensere. Track every idea on the public ledger, wins and losses alike.
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